Swiss watchmaking is shifting towards the United States as China retreats

The geography of global watchmaking is changing

For more than a decade, China was one of the great engines of Swiss watchmaking. The expansion of the Chinese upper-middle class, the emergence of new millionaires and a strong culture of gifting and status helped turn Greater China into an essential market for Rolex, Omega, Cartier, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, Vacheron Constantin and many other leading manufacturers. That balance is now changing. The latest export figures for July 2026 reveal an increasingly pronounced geographical divergence: Swiss watch exports to the United States increased by approximately 26.5% year on year, reaching around CHF 701 million, while exports to mainland China fell by 18.5%.

The contrast becomes even more important when viewed within the wider market. Total Swiss watch exports reached approximately CHF 2.63 billion in July, up 9.6% year on year. The United States alone represented roughly 26.7% of the month’s total export value, consolidating its position as the industry’s largest international market. It was also the third consecutive month of double-digit growth for the U.S. market. The United Kingdom advanced 9.5%, Germany around 11.6%, Hong Kong remained almost flat at +0.5%, Singapore increased 2.3%, while Japan declined 3.7%. The industry’s growth is therefore no longer being distributed evenly across the traditional centres of luxury consumption.

The United States is becoming the global centre of gravity for high-end watches

Several factors help explain the extraordinary strength of the American market. The first is wealth creation. The performance of financial markets, the expansion of the technology industry and the extraordinary amount of capital being generated around artificial intelligence are creating and reinforcing a large population of affluent and ultra-high-net-worth consumers.

Watchmaking is particularly well positioned to benefit from this phenomenon because an exceptional mechanical watch occupies an unusual position within luxury. It can simultaneously function as a product of craftsmanship, an expression of identity, a collectible object and, in certain cases, an asset capable of retaining substantial secondary-market value.

The American market also possesses an increasingly sophisticated collecting culture. Customers are no longer necessarily entering a boutique simply looking for “a luxury watch”. They increasingly understand references, movements, production years, dial configurations, complications and provenance. Specialist dealers, auction houses, online communities and secondary-market platforms have helped create a far more informed consumer.

For manufacturers, this creates both an opportunity and a challenge. A knowledgeable collector may be prepared to spend extraordinary amounts on the right piece, but is also much more demanding regarding authenticity, rarity, craftsmanship and long-term value.

The strongest growth is occurring at the top of the market

The July figures reveal another important development. Watches with an export price above CHF 3,000 grew approximately 12% in value, while the segment between CHF 500 and CHF 3,000 declined by around 3.9%.

This polarisation is highly revealing. The strongest customers are continuing to purchase expensive watches, while the middle of the market faces greater pressure. At the same time, the CHF 200–500 segment also showed strong growth, producing a market in which the upper and lower ends are performing better than the middle.

This is not unique to watchmaking. Similar dynamics are visible across fashion, hospitality and automotive luxury. Consumers with the greatest purchasing power remain relatively resilient, while aspirational customers have become considerably more sensitive to price.

For watch manufacturers, this could encourage even greater investment in high complications, precious metals, limited production, métiers d’art and highly exclusive references, precisely the categories where differentiation and margins can be strongest.

China is no longer an automatic growth engine

The 18.5% decline in exports to mainland China should not be interpreted as the disappearance of Chinese luxury demand. China remains a strategically important market and possesses an enormous population of affluent consumers. However, the relationship between Chinese customers and luxury has become considerably more complex.

Economic uncertainty, the property-market slowdown, changing attitudes towards conspicuous consumption and a more selective younger generation are all influencing purchasing decisions. Consumers increasingly question whether a product genuinely justifies its price and are less willing to purchase solely because a famous international logo appears on the dial.

This creates a difficult environment for brands that relied heavily on rapid retail expansion and repeated price increases during the previous growth cycle.

The Chinese customer has not stopped appreciating luxury. The customer has become more selective about which forms of luxury deserve the expenditure.

That distinction is fundamental.

A new trade agreement could improve the economics of Swiss watches in China

There is, however, an important development that could eventually improve conditions. Switzerland and China have concluded negotiations on an updated free-trade agreement designed to expand market access for Swiss products.

If the agreement ultimately reduces import duties on Swiss watches, manufacturers could gain greater flexibility. They could pass part of the benefit to consumers through more competitive pricing, retain some of it as additional margin or reinvest the savings in boutiques, marketing, events and customer relationships.

Lower tariffs alone, however, will not restore Chinese demand automatically. The challenge is increasingly one of desirability rather than availability.

The next phase of the Chinese market will require stronger product, better storytelling, deeper cultural understanding and more precise clienteling.

The American collector is increasingly important to allocation decisions

The geographical shift may also influence one of the most sensitive areas of high watchmaking: allocation.

Manufacturers produce only a limited number of their most desirable watches. Certain Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet and independent watchmaking references already face demand far beyond available supply.

If American demand continues to expand while China remains weak, brands and authorised retailers may progressively allocate more exceptional pieces, events and inventory to the United States.

Cities such as New York, Miami, Los Angeles, Dallas, Houston, San Francisco and increasingly affluent secondary markets can therefore attract greater investment from manufacturers.

The same logic applies to collectors’ dinners, exhibitions, private previews, brand experiences and independent watchmaking events. The product increasingly follows the wealth.

Independent watchmaking could benefit enormously

The growth of sophisticated American collecting also creates opportunities beyond the major groups. Independent manufacturers have experienced growing interest among collectors seeking scarcity, craftsmanship and direct relationships with watchmakers.

Once a customer already owns Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet or Cartier, the next purchase may not necessarily be another mainstream icon. It could be a watch produced in extremely small quantities by an independent atelier.

This progression mirrors what happens in art, wine and automotive collecting. As knowledge increases, buyers often move towards increasingly specialised products.

The United States could therefore become one of the most important markets not only for the largest Swiss manufacturers, but also for the independent watchmaking renaissance.

The secondary market reinforces the American advantage

Another important factor is the sophistication of the U.S. secondary market. Auction houses, specialist dealers, certified pre-owned programmes and digital marketplaces have created substantial liquidity around collectible watches.

This matters because the possibility of resale changes the psychology of the original purchase. A customer may be more willing to spend $50,000 on a watch if there is an established market demonstrating that the piece retains a substantial proportion of its value.

The secondary market therefore does not necessarily compete with the primary market. For the strongest brands, it can reinforce it.

A highly liquid secondary market creates price transparency, encourages collecting and gives buyers confidence that their purchase has an economic life beyond the initial transaction.

For manufacturers, however, it also makes product performance much more visible. Consumers can easily see which references retain value and which lose it rapidly.

Watchmaking is becoming increasingly connected to wealth creation

The geographical shift towards the United States reveals a broader principle about luxury: demand follows the creation of wealth.

During previous decades, the rapid expansion of Chinese wealth transformed the global strategies of Swiss manufacturers. Today, technology, artificial intelligence, financial markets and entrepreneurship are creating new concentrations of wealth in the United States.

Luxury brands must follow those changes.

The same phenomenon can be observed in South Korea, parts of the Middle East and selected technology-driven Asian economies. The future map of luxury consumption will increasingly be determined not simply by population or GDP, but by where new high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth individuals are being created.

For CEOs and luxury strategists, understanding these flows could become as important as understanding product trends.

The industry cannot become dependent on the United States either

There is nevertheless an important warning. Replacing dependence on China with excessive dependence on the United States would simply exchange one geographical risk for another.

The luxury watch industry has already experienced how quickly consumer sentiment, currencies, trade policies and financial markets can change. The United States currently provides exceptional momentum, but manufacturers need a geographically diversified customer base.

Europe, Japan, Southeast Asia, South Korea, India and the Middle East will therefore remain strategically important.

The strongest manufacturers will be those capable of maintaining scarcity globally while dynamically adjusting distribution and client engagement to changing centres of wealth.

The future of watchmaking will be more global, but also more selective

The July 2026 figures do not simply tell us that Americans are buying more watches and Chinese consumers fewer. They reveal a deeper transformation in the global luxury economy.

Growth is becoming concentrated among the wealthiest consumers, the most desirable products and the markets where new wealth is being created.

For Swiss watchmaking, this means the era of relying on broad-based geographical expansion may be ending. The next phase will depend much more heavily on collectors, exceptional products, clienteling, provenance, scarcity and long-term relationships.

The United States currently sits at the centre of that transformation.

China will remain essential, but it will need to be approached differently. The consumer is more sophisticated, competition is stronger and price alone no longer communicates exclusivity.

Swiss watchmaking is therefore entering a new global cycle in which the question is no longer simply where can we sell more watches?

The more important question is:

Where is the next generation of collectors being created, and what will convince them that a mechanical watch deserves to become part of their lives?

The answer to that question may determine the next decade of high watchmaking.

Prepare to lead the transformation of global luxury

The changing geography of Swiss watchmaking demonstrates why luxury executives need to understand not only brands and products, but also wealth creation, consumer behaviour, technology, international markets and the evolution of collecting.

The MBA in Luxury Management at LUXONOMY University is designed for professionals who want to master strategy, marketing, innovation, artificial intelligence, retail, hospitality, consumer behaviour and the international management of luxury brands.

Recognised as the leading online MBA in Luxury Management by U.S. News and delivered by an institution whose degrees are accredited through SACSCOC, the programme provides a global and forward-looking perspective on the forces redefining the luxury industry.

Discover the MBA in Luxury Management at LUXONOMY University