Bain & Altagamma: Luxury Enters a Phase of Contraction Before an Expected Rebound in 2026

The global luxury sector is going through a deep adjustment. According to the latest report by Bain & Company in partnership with Fondazione Altagamma, the global base of luxury customers has shrunk from around 400 million buyers in 2022 to approximately 340 million in 2025. A clear turning point after a decade of steady expansion.

The personal luxury goods market — including handbags, fashion, jewelry, beauty, watches and accessories — is expected to close 2025 at around €358 billion, slightly below 2024 levels. The analysis suggests that 2025 will be a year of stabilization after several cycles marked by price hikes, economic uncertainty and more cautious spending habits.

Bain forecasts a return to growth in 2026, with projections ranging from 3% to 5%, driven by a better alignment between perceived value and the prices charged by luxury brands.

One of the key findings is the erosion of the aspirational customer base, particularly in Europe, the United States and China, where buyers feel less value added as prices keep rising. This tension also affects traditional high-end clients, who are becoming more selective and demanding in terms of service, personalization and authenticity.

The report underlines that the next phase of luxury will hinge on three essential drivers: experience, creativity and smart regionalization. The brands that succeed in reconnecting with new generations without diluting their core identity will be the ones leading the sector’s new chapter towards 2030.