Opportunities 2026: Where JPMorgan and HSBC See Potential in the Luxury Sector

The year 2026 is shaping up as a strategic choice phase for listed luxury companies. After an extraordinary expansion cycle between 2021 and 2023, followed by normalization in 2024–2025, the sector is entering a more disciplined environment. In this context, financial institutions like JPMorgan and HSBC have identified specific opportunities grounded in two core pillars: structural brand strength and financial resilience amid mixed global economic conditions.

The consensus among analysts is not pointing toward a broad-based boom across the entire sector. Instead, 2026 is expected to reward concentrated leadership. Growth at any cost is no longer enough; what matters is profitable growth, margin discipline, and balance-sheet solidity.

The Macro Thesis: Moderate Growth, High Dispersion

Forecasts for 2026 suggest organic growth in the global luxury sector in the mid-single-digit range, approximately 4%–6% overall. Yet, that aggregate figure conceals strong dispersion between companies. Some brands deliver low double-digit growth, while others experience flat or even negative performance depending on geographic exposure and customer mix.

In this environment, analysts focus on companies capable of maintaining elevated operating margins even under slower revenue expansion. Resilience is now evaluated across three dimensions: sustained gross margins, robust cash generation, and low leverage with strong liquidity positions.

The Quality Thesis: Ultra-Premium Leadership

One of the central opportunity themes for 2026 is the ultra-premium segment, where the client base consists largely of high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth individuals who are less sensitive to macroeconomic volatility.

In this space, companies like Hermès are often cited for their historical ability to deliver consistent growth even in complex environments. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Hermès reported revenue growth close to 10% year-on-year, alongside operating margins around 40%, among the highest in the industry.

The strength of its model rests on disciplined production, structural waiting lists, minimal reliance on discounting, and a highly affluent customer base. Additionally, projected price increases for 2026 are more moderate compared to prior years, indicating a strategic balance between protecting exclusivity and preserving volume momentum.

For analysts, this combination of defensive growth and margin stability positions such companies as core holdings within the luxury universe.

Jewelry and Hard Luxury: Structural Stability and Lower Volatility

Another key opportunity identified by investment banks lies within jewelry and hard luxury. In periods where aspirational fashion face pressure due to inflation or weakening consumer confidence, jewelry often shows greater resilience. This is partly due to its perceived patrimonial dimension.

Groups like Richemont gain from this structural positioning, given their strong exposure to high-end jewelry. Projections for 2026 show gradual recovery driven by the United States and stabilization in China, particularly in high-ticket items.

The underlying investment thesis is clear: jewelry combines emotional appeal, perceived intrinsic value, and lower risk of rapid obsolescence. In uncertain environments, affluent consumers often prefer enduring pieces over trend-driven categories.

Selective Fashion Plays: Discipline and Creative Coherence

Beyond ultra-luxury and jewelry, JPMorgan has highlighted opportunities in European brands that have demonstrated operational discipline, coherent creative direction, and controlled distribution.

Companies like Prada, Moncler, and Brunello Cucinelli are often cited in this context. These firms have maintained clear brand identity, avoided excessive promotional exposure, and preserved reasonable margins despite a more demanding environment.

The opportunity here is more tactical: if sector growth stabilizes in the second half of 2026, these brands gain from improved investor sentiment without carrying the extreme valuation premiums often linked with the ultra-premium segment.

Ferrari and the Scarcity Model

A distinctive case within listed luxury is Ferrari, often treated as a hybrid between an industrial company and a scarcity-driven luxury asset.

Its production model is intentionally limited, with extended waiting lists and strict volume control. This approach creates revenue visibility and margin stability that investors find attractive in uncertain macroeconomic environments. Ferrari benefits not only from primary sales but also from the secondary market, where limited-edition models often appreciate over time.

In 2026, companies with secured backlogs and sustained pricing power often command valuation premiums.

The Geographic Dimension: U.S. Support and China as Upside Rationality

Geographically, the United States is expected to stay a primary support pillar in 2026. Some projections suggest U.S. luxury consumption growth in the 7%–8% range, supported by labor market stability and accumulated financial wealth among affluent consumers.

China, meanwhile, signifies upside rationality. After a period of adjustment, early signs of stabilization translate into progressive acceleration in selected categories. Yet, analysts are placing greater emphasis on companies that can execute even if China’s recovery unfolds more gradually than anticipated.

This cautious positioning reduces reliance on a single geographic engine and enhances portfolio stability.

Risks and Constraints: Valuation, Margins and Currency Exposure

Opportunities coexist with clearly defined risks. Valuations for certain ultra-premium names stay elevated, leaving limited room for execution missteps. Currency fluctuations, cost inflation, and operational expenses pressure margins if not carefully managed.

One structural risk concerns overreliance on price increases as a growth lever. In recent years, parts of the sector relied heavily on double-digit price hikes. In 2026, demand elasticity is under closer scrutiny, and investors are increasingly attentive to volume sustainability rather than purely price-driven revenue growth.

Selective Opportunity, Not Broad Expansion

The opportunity landscape for 2026 is defined by selectivity. JPMorgan and HSBC converge on a similar framework: focus on brands with authentic pricing power, resilient client bases, strong balance sheets, and consistent operational execution.

In a mixed economic environment, luxury once again demonstrates that its durability lies not only in aspiration but in discipline. Opportunities exist—but they are concentrated in companies capable of combining brand prestige with financial rigor.

In 2026, markets are not rewarding promises. They are rewarding consistency.