Luxury prepares to return to growth in 2026: a new phase for the global industry

After two years shaped by slowdown and adjustment, the global luxury market is beginning to show clear signs of recovery. The latest forecasts show that 2026 will mark the start of a new growth phase, driven by the resilience of high-net-worth consumers, strategic recalibration by leading maisons, and the strong performance of key categories like jewellery.

According to recent analysis by Bain & Company, the personal luxury goods market — encompassing fashion, leather goods, watches and jewellery — is expected to grow between 3% and 5% in 2026, bringing an end to the stagnation seen in 2024 and 2025. Other sector reports point to even higher potential growth, approaching 6%, provided global macroeconomic conditions stay stable.

The United States regains its role as the engine of global luxury

One of the defining drivers behind this rebound is the renewed strength of the American consumer. Recent reporting by the Financial Times highlights how major luxury groups are increasingly focusing on high-wealth clients in the United States, supported by buoyant financial markets, elevated savings levels and a renewed appetite for aspirational spending.

This shift is prompting many heritage brands to rethink their creative direction, introduce fresh brand narratives and fine-tune pricing strategies. The goal is clear: reignite wish while preserving exclusivity, in a market where consumers now demand innovation, authenticity and cultural relevance.

Jewellery stands out as a pillar of resilience

Within the broader luxury ecosystem, jewellery continues to outperform as one of the most resilient and dynamic categories. Groups like Richemont have delivered particularly strong results in this segment, posting double-digit sales growth in certain regions and maintaining sustained demand among ultra-high-net-worth clients.

This performance underscores a structural trend: during periods of caution, luxury consumers gravitate towards pieces that offer heritage value, timeless design and generational appeal. High jewellery and exceptional watchmaking reinforce their status as emotional and cultural assets, extending beyond conventional consumption.

A more selective and strategic growth model

While the outlook for 2026 is optimistic, analysts agree that this recovery does not signal a return to the rapid expansion of the past. The next cycle of luxury will be defined by more selective growth, with tighter control over volumes, streamlined retail networks and a sharper focus on long-term value creation.

In this context, brands capable of aligning creativity, artisanal excellence, data mastery and a deep understanding of the global luxury client will be best positioned to lead the next chapter. Luxury is not seeking to repeat history, but to move ahead into a more disciplined, demanding and progressive-looking model.

2026 is shaping up as the starting point of a renewed narrative for the luxury industry, where growth, wish and strategy converge once again — under a new set of rules for a changing world.